ABSTRACT

Graduation may be regarded as the principles and methods by which a set of observed (or crude) probabilities are adjusted in order to provide a suitable basis for inferences to be drawn and further practical computations to be made. One of the principal applications of graduation is the construction of a survival model (usually presented in the form of a life table) or a multiple state model (as presented in Chapters 1–3). Graduation ensures that the resulting survival or multiple state model displays the required degree of smoothness and other desirable mathematical properties so that the functions calculated from the model for practical use (for example, premiums and reserves) also share these properties.