ABSTRACT
One tendency people have with estimation of probabilities is to see how easily they can recall various events and assume that ease of memory recall is proportional to the true probability. This heuristic is known as selection bias. In games where players can choose their own skill level or play with or against human opponents of their choice, players have a natural tendency to choose a difficulty that’s a bit harder than a 50% win probability, so they are likely to struggle bit more and then give up in frustration. Players are much more likely to accept a random reward than a random setback or punishment. And interestingly, these events are interpreted very differently, through a phenomenon known in psychology as attribution bias. Lotteries, casinos, and other gambling establishments regularly take advantage of selection bias and anchoring by publicizing their big winners and size of their biggest jackpots, making it seem like winning is more likely than it actually is.
