ABSTRACT
Before attempting to explain the details of the Monte Carlo method, consider the
following situation: when two dice are rolled it is possible, using simple probability
theory, to determine the chance that any particular combination will come up. For
example, the chance of two sixes (6&6) is 1/36. The chance of a 4 and a 5 is 2/36
or 1/18 (4&5, 5&4). The chance that the total of the two dice is 9 would be 4/36 or
1/9 (3&6, 4&5, 5&4, 6&3). Now suppose that a person was unaware of the theory.
How could he or she determine the correct probabilities? One simple (but tedious)
way would be to get two dice and throw them a large number of times, possibly
thousands, and count the number of times two sixes come up or a 4 and a 5.
Knowing the number of sought-after combinations and the total number of throws
would then give an estimate of the correct value.
