ABSTRACT
A frequent flyer business traveler is concerned about the risk of encountering a terrorist bomb on one of his flights. He consults his statistician friend to get an estimate of the risk. After studying the data the statistician estimates that the probability of finding a bomb on a random flight is one in a thousand. Alarmed by such a large risk, the businessman asks his friend if there is any way to reduce the risk. The statistician offers, “Carry a bomb with you on the plane, since the probability of two bombs on the same flight is one in a million.”
