ABSTRACT

This paper aims to handle epistemic uncertainty in Bow-Tie analysis which is of epistemic type by

developing a framework that mixes evidence theory with fuzzy numbers. Existing approaches may result in underestimation of risks and information loss as we will prove later. These issues are due to mishandling in the lack of consensus and the poor representation of uncertainty using either fuzzy or evidence alone. For these reasons we propose this mixture in order to build an efficient representation of uncertainty based on the all available information in the same fuzzy-DST formalism.