ABSTRACT
Figure 10.1 presents for an aggregate of 17 practices for three calendar years the monthly pattern of GP surgery consultations. Whilst there is some year to year variation, a certain broad pattern can be detected. August is a low consultation month whilst more generally the mid-summer to early autumn period has lower consultation rates than the winter, spring and early summer. However, the seasonal difference is far from dramatic, with rates in the highest month being only about 20% higher than the lowest month. Put another way, the month to month variation is no more than ±10%. That there is some tendency for higher rates in the winter can reasonably be attributed to colder weather generating more illness. There is, however, no sharp upsurge which could clearly be attributed to an influenza outbreak. The dip in August may be linked to patients’ peak holiday time, though equally it may reflect that GPs are taking their holidays then and their surgeries are only partially being covered by locums.
