ABSTRACT

The challenge of fundamental surprise is to acknowledge these "impossible" events when they occur and to use them as sources of information for expanding the language of description. Mr. Webster's shocking incident revealed only the 'tip of an iceberg.' Another distinction concerns the value of information. Such observers should be less prone to the tendency to interpret information in ways that suit their own world view, belittling or even ignoring the diagnostic value of information that contradicts it. The prior fire overseas was noticed but regarded as irrelevant until after the local fire, when it suddenly became critically important information. The narrower interpretation can lead to denial of any need to change or to attribution of the "cause" to local factors with well-bounded responses – the "fundamental surprise error." The label "human error" is a good example of a narrow interpretation that avoids confronting the challenge raised by the fundamental surprise.