ABSTRACT
This chapter provides several illustrations of Bayesian modeling. Mosteller and Wallace, in one of the early significant Bayesian applications, explored the frequencies of word use in the well-known Federalist Papers to determine the authorship between Alexander Hamilton and James Madison. The chapter revisits this word use application and illustrates the use of a hierarchical model to simultaneously estimate the career trajectories for a group of baseball players using on-base percentage as the measure of performance. Suppose a class is taking a multiple choice exam where there are two groups of students. Some students are well-prepared and are familiar with the exam content and other students have not studied and will essentially guess at the answers to the exam questions. The chapter introduces a latent class model that assumes that the class consists of two groups of students with different success rates and the group identifications of the students are unknown.
