ABSTRACT
The One-At-A-Time sensitivity method was used to conduct the sensitivity analysis. That means changing the value of one parameter from the minimum value to the maximum value, and at the same time keeping other parameters constant at their mean value, then check the variation of the model output. Based on the sensitivity analysis result, the water level at Sanhuhekou station is sensitive to Manning coefficient of the riverbed, decay constant, and ice cover roughness. The ice cover thickness at Sanhuhekou station is sensitive to heat exchange coefficient between ice and atmosphere, and heat exchange coefficient between water and air. When conducting the uncertainty analysis about the ice cover thickness at Sanhuhekou station, the related two parameters are heat exchange coefficient between ice and air, and heat exchange coefficient between water and air. An ice flood numerical model is developed as one of the essential components at Yellow River Conservancy Commission (YRCC).
