ABSTRACT
This chapter is different from all the others in that it is an attempt to envision the future so it contains more opinions than facts. These opinions are based on a synthesis of the research and practice that has been the foundation of the previous chapters but they are still opinions. The future can be envisioned at two levels. One attempts to predict what is most likely to happen. The other attempts to set out what should happen. The former is relatively straightforward because it is limited in time and is likely to be driven primarily by costs and emerging technology. What these two factors suggest for lighting for driving is that over the next decade vehicle forward lighting will become more sophisticated with elements of the adaptive forward lighting system most attractive to vehicle purchasers trickling down from up-market vehicles to more modestly priced vehicles. Vehicle signal lighting will change little apart from the wider use of LEDs and the adoption of daytime running lamps as a requirement by more countries. Road lighting is likely to see much greater use of metal halide light sources, much less use of low-pressure sodium light sources, and the eventual introduction of the LED as a practical general lighting light source (McSweeney 2007). In addition, electronic control gear and monitoring networks that enable road lighting to be dimmed on demand are likely to be more widely adopted. As for road markings and signs, these are likely to continue to grow in number and complexity as combinations that reinforce perceptual cues have been found to be effective in influencing drivers’ behaviour (Charlton 2007).
