ABSTRACT
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Decision making often depends-and arguably, more often should depend-on inferences about
cause-and-effect relationships. If a person with arthritis takes Celebrex or Vioxx, will it reduce joint
pain-without causing a heart attack? If California funds universal pre-K, will this lead to children
being better prepared for school, to better long-term educational outcomes, and eventually to
reduced crime and poverty? How much, if at all, do highway fatalities drop because of an increase
in the legal drinking age? Does the school-based Drug Abuse Resistance Education program
(DARE) cause a decrease in students’ use of illicit drugs? Do commercial leadership training
programs lead to better leadership in companies, and does this translate into improvements in
the bottom line?
