ABSTRACT
With a little reflection we would all play and wager even money that we would not draw a spade from a card deck. We would continue to play this game even if we drew a series of spades, because we know that the immutable laws of probability will eventually assert themselves and we will win in the long run. But there are those who will bet even money that they will draw a spade, and after a few successes feel confirmed in the rightness of their method. Right and wrong, either/or-these people cannot live with a method that embraces uncertainty rather than shunning it. They do not have sufficient awareness to examine their methodology and repair it.
