ABSTRACT
The methodology for assessing the probability of seismic hazards grew out of an engineering need for better designs in the context of structural reliability [Cornell, 1968, 1969], since such assessments are frequently made for the purpose of guiding decisions related to mitigating risk. However, the
probabilistic method
has also proven to be a compelling, structured framework for the explicit quantification of scientific uncertainties involved in the hazard estimation process. Uncertainty is inherent in the estimation of earthquake occurrence and the associated hazards of damaging ground motion, permanent ground displacements, and, in some cases, seiche and tsunami. Scientific knowledge for the accurate quantification of these hazards is always limited. The balance of the hazard assessment is comprised of informed technical judgment.
