ABSTRACT

The world has witnessed dramatic increases in agricultural production during the past half century (1950 to 2000). In response to the increasing world population (that more than doubled: from 2.5 billion in 1950 to 6.1 billion in 2000) and expansion of the world economy (that increased more than seven-fold from $7 trillion in 1950-in 2001 dollars-to $46 trillion in 2000, worldwide), the world grain production tripled during this period, from 640 million tons in 1950 to 1,855 million tons in 2000. Out of this 190% increase in grain production, only 30% was the result of increases in area under cultivation, while the remaining 160% was made possible by increases in yield per unit area (world grain yield per ha increased from 1.06 tons in 1950 to 2.79 tons in 2000-and is projected to be 2.99 tons by 2010) brought about by development and adoption of modern agricultural technology. Norman Borlaug has famously articulated that this higher grain production per unit area brought about by new agricultural technologies on 660 million ha has spared 1.1 billion ha of forest land from being cleared (i.e., the area that would need to have been cleared to produce the same amount of food grains if modern technologies were not used) (https://www.usda.gov/ oce/forum/speeches/borlaug.pdf).