ABSTRACT
Abstract The Ministry of Agriculture, Fisheries and Food has policy responsibility for flood and coastal defence in England and Wales. The Environment Agency, as the relevant operating authority, exercises a general supervision over all matters relating to flood defence. The provision of flood warning systems is a high priority of both organisations. In the promotion and operation of flood warning systems, there is a need to demonstrate that any flood warning scheme is not only technically sound but also economically viable. However the benefits arising from flood warning are not well understood nor well documented. The tangible benefits are often small, relating mainly to the moving of personal possessions to above the predicted flood level. The time needed to undertake such actions is obviously a factor and can depend on age, mobility, etc. The provision of timely warnings may also give intangible benefits such as a reduction in the level of concern or stress experienced by the individual. This paper describes an approach for quantifying both the tangible and intangible benefits of flood warning and forecasting and for assessing the effectiveness of the warning process. Keywords: Decision analysis, economic benefit, event tree, flood forecasting, flood warning flood trauma value stress.
