ABSTRACT
What I would do, as an imaginary purveyor of fear of BHZ, would beto multiply the 1 in 10,000 figure by the population of the United States, which I will take to be 200 million in round numbers. I could then report back to you that 20,000 Americans die annually of BHZ. The thought of the accumulated misery of 20,000 victims and their families produces an entirely different feeling from that generated by the 9999-to-l odds. Neither figure is always the right one to quote. The odds should be considered in deciding whether or not to have an inoculation, especially if the inoculation has any undesirable side effect; the total is the proper statistic to be considered if we are asked to give money to a foundation for the relief of human misery.
