ABSTRACT
Monte Carlo is a deceptively simple method that has gained prominence in the ecological risk sciences in recent years. Its appeal is warranted because the method is a straightforward approach for generating probability distributions and conducting uncertainty analyses in all aspects of a typical risk assessment. Using Monte Carlo techniques, the analyst can perform the basic mathematical requirements of a probabilistic risk assessment, including propagating parameter uncertainty in exposure or effects models into prediction uncertainty, generating distributions of exposure and effects, and combining exposure and effects distributions into a joint distribution of risk. Monte Carlo is relatively easy to use, and several interactive and easy-touse commercial software programs are available. Monte Carlo is certainly the most popular statistical method currently in use for probability-based risk assessments, and from a broad perspective, it is an excellent choice for most applications. Because of its flexibility and range of application, Monte Carlo is an excellent uncertainty analysis tool.
