ABSTRACT
Introduction 237 AIDS, Orphans, and Deviant Tendencies237 Infected Inmates and Risk of Recidivism239 AIDS, Police, and Public Safety242 Community Policing: A Strategy at Risk?247 Strategies for the Future255 References257
of a generation of orphans* (UNICEF 2003). At the end of 2003, the AIDS epidemic has le¯ behind an estimated 15 million orphans. About 80% of these live in sub-Saharan Africa. is orphan population will increase in the next decade, especially in Southern Africa,† as HIV-positive parents become ill and die from AIDS (although a massive increase in the availability of antiretroviral therapy could bring the projected figures down to some extent) (UNAIDS et al. 2004: 3; Makubalo et al. 2003). e burgeoning orphan population is not only traumatized by the loss of parents (whose physical deterioration they may o¯en have witnessed), but they will also be deprived of the necessary control and crucial parental guidance through progressive life-stages of identity, autonomy, and socialization into adulthood. Moreover, most of them are o¯en compelled to leave school because the traditional African safety net, the extended family, will probably not be able to pay school fees and they may have to look a¯er their siblings. is may mean that orphaned children constitute a social group of disenfranchised young people who will grow up without education or any parental guidance and protection. In these pressured circumstances, these children are at high risk of turning to crime to survive (Schönteich 2002: 30). Dr. Schönteich, senior researcher with the Institute for Security Studies in Pretoria, said
e absence of a father figure early in the lives of young males tends to increase later delinquency (Gabel 1992). Moreover, such an absence may affect a boy’s ability to develop self-control:
e erosion of strong kinship ties, the lack of father figures for children, and the disintegration of family has characterized the Southern African region for decades. It is not clear whether the dynamics surrounding orphans represent a “special risk” or whether the potential impact lies simply in the scale of the epidemic. e relationship between orphans and crime is an area in which more empirical studies are required (Pharaoh and Schönteich 2003: 11). However, given that there will be some 5 million AIDS orphans in Southern Africa by 2010, it is conceivable that the region will experience a significant increase in violent interpersonal crimes such as murder, rape, and assault; violent property crimes such as robbery, mugging, and burglary; and violent crime against property such as malicious injury to property (Schönteich 2001: 7). McCrindle K., a social worker of the Child Welfare Society in South Africa, argues on AIDS orphans issue:
In Southern African states, the median survival with HIV/AIDS is estimated to be around 10 years. In these countries, the majority of HIV infections occur between 15 and 25 years for women, and between 20 and 30 years for men. us, many men aged 30-40 years will die over the next decade or so as a result of HIV/AIDS, leading to an overrepresentation of young men between 15 and 29 years (UNAIDS/WHO 2005: 20-25). e criminological theory suggests that demographic change caused by AIDS may be a significant contributor to an increase in the levels of crime and violence in the region. For example, in a decade’s time, every fourth South African will be aged between 15 and 24 years-an age group where people’s propensity to commit crime is at its highest level (Schönteich 1999: 34). A South African Department of Health publication, which looks at the impact of AIDS in South Africa, predicts that children orphaned because of AIDS could be at risk to engage in delinquent behavior:
According to the South African National HIV Survey in 2005, HIV/AIDS seroprevalence for adults and young people (from 15 to 49 years old) in the
general population in South Africa in 2005 was estimated at 16.2% (Shisana et al. 2005). In South Africa, HIV “flourishes most in areas that are burdened by unemployment, homelessness, welfare dependency, prostitution, crime, a high school drop-out rate, and social unrest” (Whiteside and Wood 1996). e impact of joblessness, illiteracy, and a general environment of lawlessness, all commonly considered contributing factors toward criminal behaviors, has also been studied as a factor in HIV infection. e poor are more likely to become migrant laborers or commercial sex workers as a survival strategy. HIV prevalence is also connected to levels of social cohesion. Unstable and unsafe social areas where family violence, high rate of crime and substance abuse, substandard housing, and overcrowded, unsanitary living conditions, and unemployment can also fuel AIDS epidemic. In marginalized communities, most people have low levels of HIV/AIDS knowledge and awareness; they do not have access to health care and are thus more likely to suffer from untreated sexually transmitted infection (STIs), which increases the probability of HIV transmission (UNAIDS 2000: 7-8).
