ABSTRACT
Introduction ............................................................................................................ 104 Previous Research .................................................................................................. 104
Learning Curves ................................................................................................ 104 Relearning Curves and Forgetting ..................................................................... 106 Factors Affecting Loss of Skill and thus Relearning Curve Parameter aR ........ 107 Factors Affecting the Relearning Rate, Parameter bR ........................................ 108
Choice of Learning Curve Forms and Development of Parameter Prediction Models .................................................................................................................... 109
Choice of Curve Forms ..................................................................................... 109 Models to Predict the Real Learning Curve Parameters ................................... 110 Variables in Parameter Prediction Model to Predict Parameter aR .................... 110 Equations to Predict Relearning Curve Parameter aR ....................................... 112 Variables in Parameter Prediction Models to Predict Parameter bR .................. 113 Equations to Predict the Parameter bR ............................................................... 115
Method ................................................................................................................... 116 Results .................................................................................................................... 116
Regressions for aR and bR .................................................................................. 116 An Example .................................................................................................. 118
Predictive Ability ............................................................................................... 121 First Test of Predictive Ability ...................................................................... 121 Second Test of Predictive Ability ................................................................. 123
Discussion, Conclusions, and Implications ...........................................................124 References .............................................................................................................. 125
Industrial learning curves (LCs) have found widespread use in aerospace and military cost estimation since World War II, and use in other sectors is increasing (e.g., Bailey 2000). Given a stable production process, such curves are excellent forecasting tools.
