ABSTRACT
Quantitative. risk. assessment. requires. probability. estimation,. either. explicitly. or. implicitly..If.you’re.going.to.be.involved.in.risk.analysis,.you’ve.got.to.be.comfortable.with.probabilistic.thinking..To.do.probabilistic.risk.assessment.well,.someone.on. the.team.has.to.be.proficient.in.choosing.the.appropriate.probability.distributions.to. describe.data,.model.natural.variability,.and.represent.knowledge.uncertainty.about. model.inputs.for.the.problems.you.are.addressing..One.of.the.most.confounding.tasks,. for.new.and.experienced.risk.assessors.alike,.is.learning.how.to.choose.the.right.probability.distribution.for.a.risk.assessment. Choosing. a. probability. distribution. is. sometimes. called. choosing. a. probability.
model;.this.is.not.to.be.confused.with.building.a.probabilistic.model..This.chapter. presents. a. strategy. to. help. you. to. choose. probability. distributions.when. you. have. some.information.about.the.quantity.you.are.modeling..Information.may.be.recorded. in.the.form.of.data;.it.could.be.general.or.specific.knowledge;.or.it.might.be.experiential.wisdom.or.professional.judgment..The.strategy.described.in.this.chapter.is.primarily.for.situations.where.you.have.some.data,.but.it.should.help.you.in.any.situation. where.you.must.choose.a.probability.distribution. The. chapter. begins. by. considering. different. graphs. used. to. display. probability.
