ABSTRACT

We have already seen that when writing the preface to his uncle’s Ars Conjectandi in 1713, Nicolaus Bernoulli encouraged Abraham De Moivre to work on some economic and political applications of probability. De Moivre was interested, but declined due to his teaching workload.1 Five years later, in his preface to his Doctrine of Chances, De Moivre suggested that Nicolaus himself was better suited to work on these kinds of problems in view of his own work in the area. He also suggested that Johann Bernoulli was well qualified to do the work. With respect to Nicolaus, De Moivre was undoubtedly referring to a summary of his PhD dissertation, which appeared as a supplement to the Acta Eruditorum for 1711.2 Part of Nicolaus Bernoulli’s thesis is concerned with probabilities of survival in human populations, as well as the valuation of life annuities and life insurance.