ABSTRACT
ABSTRACT: This paper presents advances in probabilistic modeling of hurricane wind fields and their incorporation into both short-term (near real-time) and long-term hurricane risk analysis simulation models. Output from the short-term model can be used in advance of an approaching hurricane to make decisions about evacuation, resource staging, hardening of selected facilities or routes, and so forth. Output from the long-term model can be used to characterize hurricanes for purposes of individual structure or portfolio risk analysis, as the basis for risk-consistent design basis wind speeds (e.g., performance-based design), or to characterize hurricane events (rather than simply maximum wind speeds) for purpose of spatial risk analysis or performance-based assessment of a portfolio of structures. Examples of each are presented and suggestions for future work are discussed. Also included is a brief discussion of modeling the joint hurricane wind-surge hazard.
