ABSTRACT
Investigation of concrete deterioration in Australian coastal cities under changing climate is being carried out as a part of the project funded by Department of Climate Change and CSIRO Climate Adaptation Flagship. It is based on the Monte-Carlo simulations that involve nine General Circulation Models (GCMs) with three emission scenarios, i.e. A1B, A1FI and 550 ppm stabilisation, representing medium, high and policy-intervened GHG emission scenarios. Two types of corrosion agents of concern are modelled: carbonation and chloride induced corrosion. The probabilistic analysis included the uncertainty of climate predictions, deterioration processes, material properties, dimensions, and predictive models. Deterioration of concrete structures is represented by the probability of reinforcement corrosion initiation and corrosion induced damage at a given calendar year between 2000 and 2100, and all of them are more or less affected by the changing climate depending on locations. The findings from the investigation provide a basis for the development of climate adaptation through the design of concrete structures.
