ABSTRACT
Leaping ahead a couple of millennia from Daniel, we find “the first deliberately planned controlled experiment ever undertaken on human subjects” (Stuart and Guthrie, 1953), a six-arm trial with two patients per arm. The study is a tremendous improvement over the biblical “trial.” It was painstakingly planned, including efforts to eliminate bias (except that two of the worst got seawater), and was reported in sufficient detail to judge the quality. Despite the pitifully small sample size, the correct conclusion, that citrus prevented scurvy, was reached. Lind was fortunate that one of his treatments produced a cure. We, having to live with modest treatment effects and high variability, need to consider the problems in conducting comparative trials.
