ABSTRACT
Statistical inference is a tool for analysis and discussion of options, alternatives, and actions. In statistical inference, the base assumption usually is phrased that things are unsafe until proven safe, which is the basis for the specific wording. The few errors in scientific studies or the few studies that do not support the hypothesis out of the thousands that do are often highlighted as if they were sufficient to cause rejection of the hypothesis that humans are causing dangerous global warming. If this logic were used in medicine, only one or two adverse reactions out of thousands of successful treatments would keep a drug off the market. The short-term incentives are to delay action or do nothing and pass the risks and the recriminations on to the next generation. System theory indicates that delays in feedback loops will lead to instability. In the case of the climate, many policymakers are ignoring basic principles of statistical inference.
