ABSTRACT
By 2020, Haitz and Tsao (2011) predict luminous ecacies of 150180 lm/W. It is prophesied that by this year, solid-state lamps will perform better than all conventional lamps by factors of 2× to 10× in ecacy. Also,
in 2015, the original equipment manufacturer (OEM) price of cool-white lamps will be $2 per klm, while in 2020, it will decline to $0.6 per klm. Cool-white LEDs will surpass this trend line signicantly in 2015 but even in 2015 and 2020, the retrot Edison-socket incandescent and compact uorescent lamps will still constitute a major market segment.
