ABSTRACT

The improved estimates of global change impacts on global-scale crop yield trends will require several scientic advances. Some, such as predicting the rates of global temperature increase or the behaviour of farmers

Abstract 89 2.1 Introduction 90

Global climate change 90 2.2 Projected impacts of climate change on Indian

agriculture 91 2.3 Adaptation and mitigation framework: The need to

consider the emerging scenario 92 2.4 Why is agro-meteorological advisory services

required in India? 92 2.5 Role of weather forecasting in agricultural

management 93 2.6 Development history of weather forecasting based

agro-advisory service 94 2.7 Major aspects of agro-advisory service 95 2.8 Future strategies 99 References 99

in the face of gradual trends, are beyond the scope of the traditional plant physiology community. Into mid-century, the growth rates in aggregate crop productivity will continue to be mainly driven by technological and agronomic improvements, just as they have for the past century. Even in the most pessimistic scenarios, it is highly unlikely that climate change would result in a net decline in global yields. Instead, the relevant question at the global scale is how much of a headwind climate change could contribute in the perpetual race to keep productivity growing as fast as demand? Overall, the net effect of climate change and CO2 on the global average supply of calories is likely to be fairly close to zero over the next few decades, but it could be as large as 20-30% of overall yield trends. Of course, this global picture hides many changes at smaller scales that could be of great relevance to food security, even if global production is maintained.