ABSTRACT
Chapter 12 introduces the subject of public-sector risk analysis, which is typically quite different from private-sector (financial) risk analysis. Public-sector risk is experienced when actions that are intended to result in a specific outcome may, due to uncertainty and change, end up reaching a different outcome. Risk management involves trying to keep implementation “on track,” and within an “error range” that may be tolerated. As described, risk that is involved with program implementation may be analyzed by estimating a range of possible outcomes that may result from implementation efforts. These possible outcomes may be described in terms of a variety of qualitative variables and typologies. The planned outcome then becomes associated with selected categories on qualitative scales. Other categories represent alternative outcomes. The likelihoods of these various alternatives may be estimated from practice experience drawn from knowledge bases. Risks may then be estimated, and risk management procedures put into place.
