ABSTRACT

Influence and hybrid influence diagram (HID) and decision trees deals with value of information analysis and covers sensitivity analysis. AgenaRisk has a Sensitivity Analysis tool that provides a range of automated analyses and graphs. A HID is a graphical probabilistic model that offers a general and compact representation of decision-making problems under uncertainty. The aim in decision analysis is to maximize utility given the decisions and evidence in the Bayesian network (BN). The maximum expected utility principle says that the authors should choose the alternative that maximizes the expected utility. A Decision tree (DT) represents the structure of a decision problem by modeling all possible combinations of decisions and observations, usually in the particular sequence in which one would expect observations and decisions to be made. DTs are composed of three types of nodes: chance nodes, decision nodes, and utility nodes.