ABSTRACT
This chapter considers the case of novel compounds in new or undeveloped markets and shows how the Dynamic Modeling process can be used effectively in situations of high uncertainty. The hypertension indication is a rather crowded marketplace with well-defined market segments, established evaluations of product attributes, and a wealth of data on past New Chemical Entity introductions. Before diving into the techniques for coping with uncertainty, it is helpful to set a useful framework for assessing the value of Dynamic Modeling. Mental models provide creative insights that no computerized technique can match, and combining them with simulation can provide increased clarity and consistency in the decision-making process. One problem in strategic analysis of very new markets is that the possibilities for marketplace evolution are almost infinite. Model parameterization involves an iterative process in which the model itself is used to determine the parameters that need precise estimation.
