ABSTRACT
The famous quotation “Predicting is hard, especially about the future” is alternatively attributed to Yogi Berra and Niels Bohr, two quite different insightful men of history. One was an all-star baseball catcher, and the other was a father of nuclear weapons and a Nobel Laureate. Baseball is a sport where you cannot be certain of the outcome until the last out is made. Physics seeks predictions, but even an outstanding physicist like Niels Bohr was wrong about the future of nuclear weapons. Many try to predict what America’s next big war will be, but such prediction is hard for a nation that has neither a large, powerful enemy living nearby nor the willpower to resist trying to shape the global security environment.
