China's Policy Toward Taiwan under Risk

Taiwan is one of the most dangerous flashpoints in regional security after the Cold War. Military conflicts across the Taiwan Strait may drag the United States into a direct war with China. Although Ma Ying-jeou’s electoral victories in 2008 and 2012 seemed to open a new phase in Taiwan’s relations with Mainland China, uncertainties across the Taiwan Strait still exist. How to prevent a future war across the Taiwan Strait, therefore, becomes an important research topic for both scholars and policy makers. In order to prescribe possible solutions for avoiding wars, it is essential to examine under what conditions military crises are more likely to take place between China and Taiwan and risk the intervention of the United States.