ABSTRACT
INTRODUCTION This scenario postulates the continuation of the situation that has prevailed in the Arab world since the October 1973 war, with an ongoing state of division, during the time-frame of our analytical study. The continuation of this situation does not imply that the circumstances of the Arab world will remain stable and constant; it means that the underlying logic of division, or the fragmentation of the Arab world into country states, will remain the predominant characteristic. Consequently, it does not exclude the occurrence of limited changes in internal and external Arab relations, although the dynamics of these changes will continue to be governed by the logic of division, with the corresponding acceptance of the continuation of specific options in regard to other spheres of life. In view of these hypotheses, the first main scenario closely resembles a 'scenario based on current trends'.
