ABSTRACT
People have to die of something. Historically in the Western world there has been a changing pattern in the causes of death. The infectious diseases and the diseases of childhood, by themselves or exacerbated by the effects of malnutrition, are no longer the killers they were in the past. In modern Western Europe the major killers are the chronic diseases, particularly cardiovascular problems and cancer. Further, accident and suicide are, over large parts of the life span, the most frequent cause of death. The major causes of increases in people’s longevity over the last one hundred and fifty years have been summarized as peace, potatoes and penicillin (Goldthorpe 1975:24, quoting Myrdal 1945:17). Better public health measures, including safe water and sanitation along with immunization, have been the major medical contribution to an increased life span. Thus penicillin in the quote stands for antibiotics, and also vaccination and other public health measures, which have enabled increasing proportions of people in the West to avoid the killer infections of the past. Economic growth, particularly the expansion of world food supplies and the growth both in productivity and international trade in food, has meant that many people are less susceptible to famine and malnutrition, and the diseases associated with them. Thus the potatoes in the quote stand for the increased food production available following the distribution of New World crops such as maize and potatoes to the other continents of the world. Peace is a problematic idea, as over the course of history warfare has been increasingly industrialized and exported; the potential for death from the activities of hostile strangers has greatly increased, but members of Western society are less likely to die at the hands of one of their own nation than at many times in the past. Technical innovation has also increased the chance of mass accidental mortality; there are increased chances of death ranging from car accidents to accidental nuclear emissions. The achievement of a sufficient level of world peace to enable regular, large-scale trade in basic commodities, such as food and fertilizer, is probably the most significant contribution “peace” has made to longevity.
