ABSTRACT
The best case for testing this proposition is Korea. The Korean industry is also on the threshold of maturity. Based on recent estimates, Korean steel consumption is already slowing down (Table 8.1) from about 4 percent annual growth of steel consumption for the rest of the decade to -0.4 percent for 2011-20. Its exports are also estimated to fall, while its production is expected to increase before tapering off. Given the recent banking and
Table 8.1 Forecasts of Korean steel industry ('000 tons of crude steel)
1995 2000 2010
Domestic consumption (A) 37,306 45,129 50,348 Exports 9,556 12,097 12,600 Total 46,862 57,226" 62,946 Production (B) 36,772 49,226 53,446 Imports 10,090 8,000 9,500 AlB (%) 98.6 109.1 105.1 Export share (%) 26.0 24.6 22.6
48,848 13,000 61,848 51,848 10,000
106.1 25.1
1996-2000 2001-2010 2011-2020
3.9 1.1 -0.4 4.8 -0.4 -0.3 4.1 1.0 -0.3 6.0 0.8 -0.3
-4.5 1.7 0.5
currency crisis in the East and South-East Asian region, consumption in the short term may fall faster than predicted while aggressive exporting may have to be adopted to keep up operating rates. In the event of a prolonged recession, the Korean economy as a whole might be pressed to reorganize its industry drastically.
