ABSTRACT
If changes in North Africa and Southwest Asia proceed as fast in the next thirty years as in the last thirty, the region will be very different from now. With double the population, possibly a reduction in the absolute quantity of oil exported, little addition to the cultivated area, and the growth of manufacturing, especially in the larger cities, the region could turn into a large importer of food and raw materials. If there are as many military conflicts in the next thirty years as in the last, international or internal, then the apparent advantage of having two-thirds of the world’s oil reserves could have been lost.
