ABSTRACT
Some examples were given in Box 1.4 of forecasts that illustrate the pitfalls of predicting future events too precisely. The idea that past events can be useful guides to the future is not a new one, but although it appeals to many people, historians are cautious about the degree to which past experiences and lessons can serve as guidelines for planning the future or be used to forecast future trends and events. A strong argument for speculating about the future, however, is the fact that the past has happened and cannot be changed, although new information about it can be discovered and it can be reinterpreted, whereas at least to some extent the future can be influenced and controlled.
