ABSTRACT
Economic forecasting is an extremely risky enterprise. (An elderly colleague once advised: “If you are going to forecast, do so very frequently. That way, you will occasionally be correct.”) However, if one were to ask what the major policy issues in international economics will be during the next decade, the following questions come to mind:
1 Does the success of President Bush in getting fast-track authority, after President Clinton’s failure to do so, mean that what appeared to be growing economic isolationism in the US Congress has faded, and that the Doha Round has strong prospects for success? In the Doha WTO Round, will the United States be willing to seriously negotiate an easing of its extremely unpopular dumping and subsidy codes, and if the United States does so, will the Congress, which likes the dumping and subsidy codes, be willing to pass the agreement into law? Will the EU and the United States be willing to scale back their production-distorting agriculture support programs which injure farmers in developing countries so severely? Can further progress be made in liberalizing trade in services? Can a compromise be found on issue of the protection of intellectual property which will allow poor countries access to patented medicines at reasonable prices without severely damaging market incentives for research and development, which is both risky and expensive, on new medicines? This is only the beginning of the list of issues for the Doha Round.
