ABSTRACT

The institutional strength of a political party and a government is measured “in the first instance” by its ability to survive its founder. 1 Political succession can be a perilous and unpredictable process in developing states. Sometimes leaders are unwilling to give up power, and in order to avoid pressure from below, they will not name a successor or plan the succession. Some other times, the highly personalized nature of their rule means that, even if the succession is planned, attempts at institutionalization are overwhelmed and the leader remains more important than the office. Announcements of succession can also be dangerous in that they may heighten expectations and signal the possibility of change that can affect state–society relations and lead to instability.