ABSTRACT
If you have started to work through this book by beginning with this chapter on worked examples, please think again. If you have skipped Chapter 1 you will not know that one of this book’s objectives is to help the reader to develop good judgement for approaching risk analysis of projects in a variety of settings and for a wide range of project types. An important aspect of this objective is to avoid getting locked into a mechanistic or ‘checklist’ approach to quantitative analysis. If you already have a good knowledge of probability calculations then you may not have missed anything too important by skipping Chapter 2. Chapters 3 and 4 presented important psychological factors which influence professional judgements on projects, data and attitudes to risk. Chapter 5 gave an introduction to each technique, accompanied by an assessment of its strengths and weaknesses. No construction professional bound by the normal duty of care should use any quantitative technique without complete knowledge of its limitations. If you are comfortable about all of the above and still wish to commence here, then go ahead.
