ABSTRACT
The two scenarios for Europe delineated in this chapter are of a ‘mid-term’ nature, looking a decade or so into the future (2015, approximately). This is seen as the most interesting time frame. Roughly speaking, in the long run ‘too much’ is possible, and the short run is normally too similar to the present to bear interesting implications. A decade allows the assumption that the US remains the undisputed superpower, also with a unique position in Europe’s neighbourhood. China with its economic growth rates and political self-assertion may one day challenge the superpower globally, if its (military) power projection ability is improved. For one thing, however, this will hardly happen within the coming decade.1 Second, whereas the Chinese development and self-assertion is crucial for Europe economically (trade), it hardly is geopolitically. China is simply beyond Europe’s sphere of influence, and vice versa.
