ABSTRACT
The chapter is structured as a plausibility probe-not a test-of the theory advanced in Chapter 2 and applied throughout the book. It offers a set of theoretical propositions and some empirical evidence to support these propositions, but it makes no attempt at falsifying the propositions. A plausibility probe is a useful methodological tool at a stage of inquiry preliminary to testing. As noted by Eckstein, ‘[i]n essence, plausibility probes involve attempts to determine whether potential validity may reasonably be considered great enough to warrant the pains and costs of testing, which are almost always considerable, but especially so if broad, painstaking comparative studies are undertaken’ (Eckstein 1975:108). This is the case here: we want to know whether a theory taking its point of departure in Euro-Atlantic politics may be applicable to foreign policy behaviour in other regions as well. Theoretical plausibility probes-outlining the internal logic of the theory and how it applies to the field of study-should generally precede empirical plausibility probes surveying potential cases and both should precede genuine testing and comprehensive case studies. Accordingly, I now proceed to a theoretical plausibility probe exploring how the logic of the constellation theory may be revised to apply to foreign policy behaviour outside the Euro-Atlantic area. Then an empirical plausibility probe surveys core-periphery regionalism in the Americas, East Asia, Central Asia, the Middle East and Africa. The plausibility probes concern the specific version of the constellation theory constructed and applied in this volume (see Figure 2.2), but in the concluding section of the chapter, I briefly relate the results to the general constellation theory (see Mouritzen 1991).
