ABSTRACT

During the twentieth century, similar to other developing countries worldwide, Arab populations have moved through three major demographic stages, in line with the ‘demographic transition theory’. The first stage, which lasted until the 1940s, was characterized by high rates of both fertility and mortality, leading to low natural increase rates of less than two per cent.1 However, during the 1950s, the second stage began, characterized by a rise in the natural increase rates resulting from a steady decline in the crude death rates. This drop in the crude death rate was due to both increasing life expectancy and sharp reductions in infant and child mortality rates. By the mid-1980s, the crude death rate was less than 10 per 1,000 for most Arab countries, except for Yemen and Sudan, as compared with 25-30 per 1,000 during the early 1950s. At the same time, fertility levels continued to be very high, amounting to crude birth rates of more than 40 per 1,000, and in some countries, such as Oman and Saudi Arabia, even close to 50 per 1,000, while the total fertility rates varied between five and seven births per woman.2 Thus, during the 1980s, the natural increase rate in the Arab countries skyrocketed to approximately three per cent, and in some countries, mainly those of the rich oil-exporting Persian/Arabian Gulf, even reached four per cent (see Table 6).