ABSTRACT
Communal conflicts, scattered around the globe and often taking place within states, are likely to be the prevalent form of conflict. Almost all of the approximately 30 significant conflicts since the end of the Cold War have been internal. The most likely locations of these conflicts are the regions of collapsed empires – Africa and the rim of the former Soviet Union. Although most of these conflicts are not immediately damaging beyond their respective borders, they can spread geographically, induce humanitarian intervention, and cumulatively create longterm and global threats to international security. Thus, although great power conflicts are less likely than ever before to arise out of global or regional balance of power considerations, the great powers will continue to face difficult choices on how to prevent communal conflicts from occurring or from escalating in intensity, spreading geographically, and proliferating in number. American leadership is a key factor in limiting the frequency and destructive-
ness of all three kinds of conflicts. This does not mean that the United States could or should get involved in every potential or ongoing conflict. Its role must be proportionate to its interests in each conflict, and the nation cannot afford the military, economic, and political costs of being a global policeman. Instead, where it has important interests, the United States must continue to aspire to a role more like the sheriff of the posse, enabling international coalitions to pursue interests that it shares whether or not the United States itself supplies the bulk of the military forces involved.
