ABSTRACT
The generally accepted theory of the process of oil formation implies the existence of a finite quantity of oil available for mankind's use and the spectre of the exhaustion of reserves has often been raised. It is estimated that by the end of 1961 some 18,000 million tons of oil had been used since the industry started about a century earlier. Of this total amount, however, almost 50 per cent, was consumed in the decade 1950–60 when the rate of consumption increased very rapidly in most parts of the world. The 1960 consumption of over 1000 million tons has been compared with the figure for proven reserves of oil which stand at little more than 40,000 million tons. This relationship between current production and proven reserves apparently seems to indicate a future for the industry of only forty years and much less than this if consumption continues to expand at the current rate of about 7 per cent, per annum. It is largely on the basis of this comparison that the charge is laid that the world is running out of oil, which should not, therefore, be relied upon to provide energy for the future. For example, Mr. W. Wyatt, the Member of Parliament for a constituency which includes the greater part of the Leicestershire coalfield, in a speech in the House of Commons on Britain's energy position in 1959, commented:
‘How safe will it be to reduce our coal consumption. … It may be 30 years before atomic energy can be relied upon to provide any substantial load of power. Meanwhile, oil is running out fast. … The consumption of oil in the world is going up by 7% a year. … In 20 years there will almost certainly be a major crisis in the world. The proved reserves today are only 40,000 million tons and even the wildest estimates of future discoveries do not put the total amount of oil in the world at more than 200,000 million tons. A good deal of that is in areas which it is extremely difficult to drill and exploit. In 20 years time the oil companies will be down to about the last 30 years of their supply at the rate of consumption which will then have been reached in the world as a whole.’ 1
In March, 1961, the economic adviser to the National Coal Board, Mr. E. F. Schumacher, expressed the belief that it is ‘completely uncertain’ whether sufficient oil will be available to supply Britain's energy requirements in the 1980s. 2