ABSTRACT
When thinking about the future of large nations – and particularly those burdened by a long and recently highly traumatic history – most prognosticators and judges of national fortunes find it very difficult not to succumb, largely if not completely, to extreme scenarios. Perhaps the most prominent example from the last generation is the judgment of Western “experts” of the USSR/Russia’s importance. First the USSR was seen by too many experts as an invincible state whose military might and international influence would only grow; after its demise other experts quickly wrote off Russia – with its alcoholic pandemic, falling life expectancy and shrinking population – as a country largely, if not entirely, irrelevant to the course of modern history. And perhaps the most obvious post-9/11 example is the US attitude to the Saudi royal family: officially still valued, if a reluctant, time-tested ally, but in the eyes of families of 9/11 victims a particularly odious enemy being sued for $1.2 trillion as an accomplice of terror.
