ABSTRACT
Disasters, especially those that seem principally to be caused by natural hazards, are not the greatest threat to humanity. Despite the lethal reputation of earthquakes, epidemics and famine, a much greater proportion of the world’s population find their lives shortened by events that often go unnoticed: violent conflict, illnesses, and hunger - events that pass for normal existence in many parts of the world, especially (but not only) in less developed countries (LDCs). 1 Occasionally earthquakes have killed hundreds of thousands, and very occasionally floods, famines or epidemics have taken millions of lives at a time. But to focus on these (in the understandably humanitarian way that outsiders do in response to such tragedies) is to ignore the millions who are not killed in such events, but who nevertheless face grave risks. Many more lives are lost in violent conflict and to the preventable outcome of disease and hunger (see Tables 1.1 and 1.2). 2 Such is the daily and unexceptional tragedy of those whose deaths are through ‘natural’ causes, but who, under different economic and political circumstances, should have lived longer and enjoyed a better quality of life. 3 Hazard types and their contribution to deaths, 1900–1999 https://www.niso.org/standards/z39-96/ns/oasis-exchange/table">
Hazard type in rank order
Percentage of deaths
Slow onset:
Famines – drought
86.9
Rapid onset:
Floods
9.2
Earthquakes and tsunami
2.2
Storms
1.5
Volcanic eruptions
0.1
Landslides
<0.1
Avalanches
Negligible
Wildfires
Negligible
Source: CRED at www.cred.be/emdat Deaths during disasters, listed by cause, 1900–1999 https://www.niso.org/standards/z39-96/ns/oasis-exchange/table">Cause of death [ a ]
Numbers killed (millions)
Percentage of deaths
Political violence
270.7
62.4
Slow-onset disaster [ b ]
70.0
16.1
Rapid-onset disaster
10.7
2.3
Epidemics
50.7
11.6
Road, rail, air and industrial accidents
32.0
7.6
TOTAL
434.1
100
Notes:the source for political violence data is Sivard (2001). For all other causes, data is summarised from that available at www.cred.be/emdat
this figure has been increased by us to an estimate of 70 million, much higher than the official data, which would give a total of around 18 million. This is to compensate for large-scale underreporting of deaths from drought and famine. There are several reasons why this can occur. For instance, it is often the case that governments conceal or refuse to acknowledge famine for political reasons. The Great Leap Forward famine in China (1958–1961) was officially denied for more than 20 years, and then low estimates put the number of deaths at 13 million and higher ones at up to 30 million or more (see Chapter 4). A further problem is that sometimes recorded deaths in famine are limited to those who die in officially managed feeding or refugee camps. Many more are likely to die unrecorded at home or in other settlements.
