RESEARCH METHOD: STRATEGY AND TACTICS
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RESEARCH METHOD: STRATEGY AND TACTICS book
The credibility loss following a false alarm is inevitable in any warning system. That much has already been established. Protecting a warning system from the false alarm effect is therefore bound to be a difficult and arduous task, and complete success is impossible. Our research program, which aims to study ways of reducing the FAE, faces the major obstacle posed by learning from experience. The most that we can hope for is partial success by sufficiently delaying the eventual ineffectiveness of a warning system to encourage protective action. It is a delaying action only-a controlled retreat-never a victory. Indeed, it is a somber thought that the only way to win the battle for credibility is to experience the shattering consequences of a true alarm.