PROBABILITY OF THREAT AND THE FALSE ALARM EFFECT
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PROBABILITY OF THREAT AND THE FALSE ALARM EFFECT book
Our next attempt to discover variables that may protect a warning system from a particularly intense false alarm effect via the information-management subsystem deals with an especially potent variable, the probability of the threat. The rationale for the anticipated potency of the probability issue rests on the analysis of the concepts of credibility and probability. Credibility reflects the belief that particular information is trustworthy and should be taken seriously. The announced probability of a threat indicates the chances that the threatening information will be followed by an actual danger. Thus, from the point of view of the receiver, objective probability reflects the amount of credibility that the warning system attaches to the danger signals at its disposal. Needless to say, the receiver's subjective probability is entirely indistinguishable from his or her perception of a warning system's credibility. The two are intimately intertwined; consequently, by manipulating probability, we are at the core of the credibility issue.