ABSTRACT
Population ageing is the inevitable consequence of the classical demographic transition which began in Europe in the eighteenth and nineteenth centuries and entailed first a decline in mortality over almost 150 years followed by a dramatic and fairly rapid decline in fertility. Demographically, global development has become increasingly uneven since the onset of the demographic transition in Europe, beginning in France shortly after the French Revolution. Natural population growth was approaching zero again and across Europe fertility declined even further in what has been termed the second demographic transition. The demographic transition throughout the Western world has consisted of falling fertility and mortality rates; the ageing of these populations during demographic transition is a second-order demographic effect. Fertility remains a key driver of demographic change. When the countries of Northern Europe reached fertility levels of around 1.5 or below in the mid-1980s, it was predicted that these would increase and that such low levels were a unique demographic phenomenon.
